college football rankings 2011

College Football Preseason Rankings 2011

The polls for the coming 2011 college football season are not out yet (only "pre-polls" (see also here), so that this posting presents some material to help prognosticate which team might emerge as national champion in 2011.

YPPSYS College Football Preseason "Rankings" 2011



- The Top 60 of 120 FBS Division I Teams

1. Stanford

2. Nebraska

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Boise State

6. Oklahoma

7. LSU

8. Oklahoma State

9. TCU

10. Virginia Tech

11. Wisconsin

12. Arkansas

13. Florida State

14. Ohio State

15. Notre Dame

16. USC (Southern Cal)

17. Arizona State

18. Mississippi State

19. Auburn

20. South Carolina

21. Florida

22. Michigan

23. Texas

24. UCF

25. Missouri

26. Miami (Florida)

27. Georgia

28. North Carolina

29. Michigan State

30. Texas A&M

31. Washington

32. Arizona

33. San Diego State

34. Nevada

35. Utah

36. Penn State

37. Iowa

38. Maryland

39. Southern Miss

40. Tennessee

41. Louisville

42. Oregon State

43. West Virginia

44. Air Force

45. Clemson

46. Pittsburgh

47. Houston

48. South Florida

49. Tulsa

50. N.C. State

51. Colorado

52. Hawaii

53. California

54. Illinois

55. Texas Tech

56. Boston College

57. Navy

58. SMU

59. Connecticut

60. Georgia Tech

These rankings and ratings are based on the YPPSYS Final Post-Bowl 2010/2011 NCAA FBS (Division I-A) Rankings and Ratings, showing how the teams finished last year and adding notes here and there as to what has changed in the interim. OUR PRESEASON RANK FOR EACH TEAM IS GIVEN IN RED TO THE RIGHT OF LAST YEAR'S FINAL RANKING.

YPPSYS = Yards Per Play System. Net average yards per play advantage (NAYPPA) over opposing teams is an important statistic for judging the strength of football teams e.g. college football's greatest teams of the past.



We developed NAYPPA some years ago and have used it successfully since then, though with some additional tweaking -- in a new combination for this ranking list as of July, 2011 -- for strength of schedule, best win and worst loss by opponent team ranking, conference strength and won-loss record. The Boise State NAYPPA of 3.5 for the 2010 schedule is a modern-day record for Division I FBS teams. but is relativized by its weaker schedule and weaker conference. Note that we take our yards per play stats primarily from cfbstats.com.



Note how Georgia Tech, the 2010 season 60th ranked team of 120 teams in FBS, clearly manifests the balance of this rating and ranking system, having played the 60th toughest schedule, having permitted as many yards per play on average on offense as on defense and putting up a nearly even W-L record.

YPPSYS Final Rank 2010 season including bowl games in black followed by preseason ranking in red - the arrows show the seeming trend for 2011 while number series shows as plus 1 or minus X the strength of the QB, RB, O, D, C, S (offense defense coaching schedule) _________	The Football TEAM that was ranked and rated	NAYPPA 2010 (net average yards per play advantage)		YPP OFF yards per play		YPP DEF yards per play			Schedule difficulty rank (schedule difficulty rank based on Massey Ratings)		W-L record 2010		Team Rating based on yards per play advantage adjusted by schedule difficulty, won-loss record, best win & worst loss & conference strength (acc. to Sagarin)) ___________
1ꜜ (19) (as goes "Gus" Malzahn, so "Goes" Auburn) X-1-1-X-1 (X-Dyer-Mosley-X-Malzahn)	Auburn (16 starters & Heisman winner QB Cameron Newton graduated)	2.0		7.4		5.4			4		14-0		1.7
2ꜜ (4) (QB Darren Thomas & Heisman 2 LaMichael James return) 1-1-X-X-1-1 (Thomas-James-X-X-Kelly-S)	Oregon (12 starters graduated, All-America cornerback & punt returner Cliff Harris indefinitely suspended)	2.0		6.7		4.7			6		12-1		1.6
3ꜛ (1) (big and strong, but coaching change adds uncertainty) 1-X-1-1-X-1 (Luck-X-O-D-X-S)	Stanford (top QB in Andrew Luck but head coach Jim Harbaugh lost to 49ers)	1.6		6.7		5.1			2		12-1		1.5
4ꜛ (3) (national championship contender, as always, under Saban) X-1-1-1-1-X (X-Richardson- O-D-Saban-X)	Alabama (loaded with talent but no proven QB so reliance will be on strong run game and top defense)	2.4		7.0		4.6			14		10-3		1.5
5ꜜ (14) (scandal may cut deeper) X-1-1-1-X-X (X-Herron-O-D-X-X)	Ohio State (depleted by scandal, loss of head coach Tressel and graduations)	2.2		6.5		4.3			27		12-1		1.4
6ꜜ (9) (always super tough, non-BCS powerhouse, in rebuilding year)	TCU (11 returning starters)	2.5		6.7		4.2			56		13-0		1.3
7ꜛ (5) (sustainable depth, the mark of a super program)	Boise State (defense strong, offense lost personnel, but Kellen Moore and Doug Martin return)	3.5!		7.5		4.0			46		12-1		1.3
8ꜜ (12) (lots of talent but lose QB)	Arkansas (QB Ryan Mallett must be replaced)	1.9		7.1		5.2			12		10-3		1.2
9ꜛ (8) (lots of talent, but still not in the pink)	Oklahoma State (terrific QB Weeden and magic reciver Blackmon are back)	1.9		6.9		5.0			34		11-2		0.8
10ꜜ (11) (holes in the line to fill in spite of potent rushing attack)	Wisconsin (RBs Clay and White return and QB problem fixed via Russell Wilson)	1.4		6.7		5.3			38		11-2		0.1
11ꜛ (2) (EA Sports has Big Red in Rose Bowl: Cornhuskers must first master stiff Big Ten competition) 1-1-1-1-1-X (TMagic-Rex-O-D-Pelini-X)	Nebraska (Lavonte David leads defense, offense simpler under Tim Beck: look for the pistol. Paul Myerberg ranks Huskers 5th). Who can beat the Big Red if the offense clicks?	1.5		6.1		4.6			28		10-4		0.0
12ꜛ (7) (perhaps overrated and with mediocre stats but always a force to be reckoned with)	LSU (a national championship contender? doubted by the College Football Girl)	0.4		5.3		4.9			15		11-2		0.0
13ꜜ (32) (self-destructed last year and is likely to have a rough season)	Arizona (Wildcats coming off a 5-game losing streak)	1.1		6.0		4.9			13		7-6		-0.2
14ꜛ (10) (where can they lose with this schedule?)	Virginia Tech (easy schedule, should put the Hokies in the top 10)	0.5		6.2		5.7			19		11-3		-0.3
15ꜛ (6) (perennial powerhouse not yet in top form, lacking dominance, but should move up)	Oklahoma (Sooner fans expect big things of a team with 18 returning starters, but last year's stats were not impressive)	0.5		5.6		5.1			20		12-2		-0.4
16ꜛ (13) (Oklahoma game will tell us how strong the Seminoles are, and they should move up in the rankings)	Florida State (will the Oklahoma beat the Seminoles?)	1.1		6.0		4.9			16		10-4		-0.4
17ꜜ (29) (defense needs serious work and Spartans likely to drop out of top 20)	Michigan State (Spartans must recover from a 49-7 loss to Alabama in the Capital One Bowl)	0.9		6.2		5.3			43		11-2		-0.4
18ꜜ (33) (Aztecs bound to stay strong under Long, but surely not to stay in the top 25)	San Diego State (Brady Hoke is gone but team has strengths if defense-oriented Rocky Long can keep offense potent)	2.0		6.9		4.9			79		9-4		-0.5
19ꜛ (17) (a school this big should always be good but the Sun Devils have recently disappointed)	Arizona State (3rd largest USA undergrad enrollment and 20 (!) returning starters)	0.8		5.8		5.0			7		6-6		-0.5
20ꜛ (18) (a likely top 10 contender -- how to keep this head coach from being hired away?)	Mississippi St. (Dan Mullen has brought life to this once doormat Bulldogs team)	0.5		5.8		5.3			23		9-4		-0.5
21ꜛ (20) (the sometimes good and bad Gamecocks are not consistent in a tough SEC conference)	South Carolina (Heisman candidate Lattimore leads expectations, but QB and defense remain questions)	0.6		6.0		5.4			11		9-5		-0.5
22ꜜ (30) (LSU beat the Aggies in the Cotton Bowl last season 41-24)	Texas A&M (Aggies picked by some as the Number 2 team of 10 teams left in the decimated Big 12 Conference)	0.8		5.6		4.8			22		9-4		-0.6
23ꜜ (37) (last year, Iowa won the close games to stay in contention)	Iowa (always tough, headed by one of the best coaches out there, Kirk Ferentz)	1.3		6.2		4.9			42		8-5		-0.6
24ꜜ (25) (Big 12 North now with the Tigers as the favorites)	Missouri (somewhat weaker since the major question is quarterback)	0.7		5.7		5.0			30		10-3		-0.6
25ꜛ (21) (Some talent but will Gator fans have to wait a bit to recover the glory of the Urban Meyer era?)	Florida (defensive guru Will Muschamp from Texas takes over as Gators' head coach, with Charlie Weiss on offense)	0.5		5.2		4.7			18		8-5		-0.7
26ꜛ (24) (Rivals.com countdown has UCF at 45rd which we think is too low)	UCF (Nr. 1 university in the USA in undergraduate enrollment, so coming football power status is to be expected)	1.0		5.8		4.8			95		11-3		-0.7
27ꜛ (27) (Last year Georgia went 6-6 and the best team beaten was Georgia Tech, 6-7)	Georgia (fair to good, the Bulldogs host Boise State for the season opener, and are likely to lose)	0.9		6.1		5.2			26		6-7		-0.8
28ꜛ (15) (ND Nation has a top posting on Brian Kelly and Lou Holtz: An offense in transition?)	Notre Dame (10+ Wins? is Brian Kelly the miracle worker in year two at the helm?)	0.3		5.5		5.2			17		8-5		-0.9
29ꜛ (16) (this is the last season of post-game ineligibility, a stupid NCAA sanction penalizing the innocent)	USC (Trojans, a shadow of themselves, though suffering many maladies, still have top recruits)	0.1		6.0		5.9			5		8-5		-0.9
30ꜛ (28) (new QB Bryn Renner could turn this team into a national title contender)	North Carolina (Tar Heels have talent but are clouded by NCAA sanctions)	0.8		5.9		5.1			24		8-5		-0.9
31ꜛ (26) (talent is flooding into Miami because of new head coach Al Golden)	Miami (Florida) (a new coaching staff for the Hurricanes)	1.1		5.9		4.8			21		7-6		-0.9
32ꜜ (34) (the Wolf Pack must rebuild, as QB Colin Kaepernick is gone)	Nevada (Chris Ault's pistol offense has changed the face of football)	1.4		7.0		5.6			68		13-1		-1.0
33ꜜ (43) (The Mountaineers go on NCAA probation)	West Virginia (Dana Holgorsen takes over as head coach)	1.1		5.3		4.2			58		9-4		-1.0
34ꜜ (46) (Pitt AD gets a mulligan, will it work?, team ranked 35th here)	Pittsburgh (Todd Graham of Tulsa takes over as head coach for Dave Wannstedt)	1.0		5.7		4.7			41		8-5		-1.0
35ꜜ (53) (The Sports Bank rates Cal 56th for 2011)	California (strong defense and weak offense)	0.5		5.3		4.8			10		5-7		-1.0
36ꜛ (35) (Utah's first year in the Pac 12 Conference, rated 17th here)	Utah (Whittingham is top but what will Norm Chow do with the offense?)	0.8		6.1		5.3			40		10-3		-1.1
37ꜜ (52)	Hawaii (only 9 starters return: a rebuilding year)	2.4		7.6		5.2			81		10-4		-1.1
38ꜛ (38)	Maryland (Randy Edsall of UConn takes over as head coach)	0.9		5.6		4.7			54		9-4		-1.1
39ꜛ (31) (they have top coaches and wins will come)	Washington (first they have to beat SDSU, which may not be easy)	-0.1		5.5		5.6			3		7-6		-1.2
40ꜛ (22) (Brady Hoke recruits the magic back to Ann Arbor starting 2012, but 2011 will still be rough)	Michigan (Wolverines have the offense, but defensive improvement is the key to winning more games this year)	0.7		6.8		6.1			33		7-6		-1.2
41ꜛ (44)	Air Force (Troy Calhoun continues as a winner)	0.8		6.0		5.2			64		9-4		-1.3
42ꜜ (61)	Baylor (Robert Griffin at QB guarantees potent offense)	0.8		6.6		5.8			52		7-6		-1.3
43ꜛ (40)	Tennessee (rocky days for Rocky Top, but a winning season looks possible)	0.3		5.7		5.4			32		6-7		-1.4
44ꜜ (57)	Navy (a tough schedule for the Midshipmen this year)	0.5		6.2		5.7			69		9-4		-1.5
45ꜛ (42)	Oregon State (has only 4 home games in a stadium that is its greatest advantage)	-0.5		5.2		5.7			1		5-7		-1.7
46ꜜ (50)	N.C. State (Wolfpack lacks top quarterback)	-0.1		5.2		5.3			29		9-4		-1.7
47ꜜ (54)	Illinois (many fresh faces for the Illini)	0.3		5.7		5.4			49		7-6		-1.7
48ꜛ (23) (last year Texas, not geared to it, went to a run game, losing seven)	Texas (offense needs total revamp while Muschamp is gone as OC on defense)	0.6		5.2		4.6			50		5-7		-1.7
49ꜛ (45) (Chad Morris speeding up the team)	Clemson (shake-up in coaching staff)	0.2		5.1		4.9			25		6-7		-1.7
50ꜜ (56) (great defense, disastrous offense)	Boston College (has three top players)	0.4		4.8		4.4			31		7-6		-1.8
51ꜛ (49) (an offensive juggernaut ala Malzahn)	Tulsa (new head coach Bill Blankenship )	0.3		6.5		6.2			86		10-3		-1.8
52ꜛ (36) (a young team starts to come of age)	Penn State (16 returning starters for Joe Paterno)	0.1		5.5		5.4			48		7-6		-1.9
53ꜛ (48) (defense leads to winning record)	South Florida (Skip Holtz in 2nd year must solve problems on offense)	0.3		5.0		4.7			67		8-5		-1.9
54ꜛ (41)	Louisville (the Tyler Gabbert saga is unclear, Charlie Strong's team is better but needs QB)	0.7		5.7		5.0			71		7-6		-1.9
55ꜜ (59) (Coach Jerry Kill to Minnesota)	Northern Illinois (59th at Pre-Snap Read)	1.7		6.9		5.2			104		11-3		-1.9
56ꜛ (55)	Texas Tech (Tommy Tuberville has to fix defense)	-0.1		5.7		5.8			53		8-5		-2.0
57ꜜ (68)	Kentucky (defense OK but offense unclear)	0.5		6.1		5.6			59		6-7		-2.0
58ꜜ (85)	Cincinnati (Bearcats went from 11-0 in 2009 to 4-8)	0.7		6.0		5.3			51		4-8		-2.0
59 (76)	Connecticut (Paul Pasqualoni takes over)	-0.3		4.9		5.2			75		8-5		-2.4
60 (60)	Georgia Tech (statistically last year the most average of the average teams)	0.0		5.7		5.7			60		6-7		-2.5
61ꜛ (58)	SMU (18 starters and QB return)	1.3		6.3		5.0			80		7-7		-2.5
62 (67)	Mississippi (Nutt defense remains weak)	-0.5		5.8		6.3			44		4-8		-2.7
63ꜛ (62)	Syracuse (Doug Marrone moving the Orangemen)	0.6		5.2		4.6			74		8-5		-2.7
64 (64)	Kansas State (Wildcats short on talent)	-0.6		5.8		6.4			57		7-6		-2.8
65 (65)	BYU (plays as an independent this season)	-0.1		5.0		5.1			61		7-6		-2.8
66ꜜ (86)	Temple (Al Golden is gone)	0.8		5.5		4.7			102		8-4		-2.8
67ꜛ (66)	Northwestern (strong QB in Persa but weak defense)	-0.5		5.4		5.9			76		7-6		-2.9
68 (78)	UCLA (Chow out, Johnson in for offense)	-1.4		4.7		6.1			8		4-8		-3.0
69ꜛ (51)	Colorado (will Buffs be better in Pac 12 under Jon Embree?)	-0.8		5.1		5.9			36		5-7		-3.1
70ꜛ (69)	Iowa State (Paul Rhoads doing well with Cyclones)	-0.9		4.6		5.5			35		5-7		-3.1
71ꜛ (70)	Fresno State (Pat Hill wins for Bulldogs)	-0.2		5.6		5.8			77		8-5		-3.2
72ꜛ (71)	Purdue (Boilermaker offense is the questionmark)	-0.5		4.7		5.2			62		4-8		-3.2
73ꜛ (39)	Southern Miss (highly ranked on many lists)	0.2		5.7		5.5			90		8-5		-3.3
74ꜛ (47)	Houston (Case Keenum returns at QB to break more records)	0.6		6.4		5.8			89		5-7		-3.3
75ꜛ (63)	Virginia (Mike London has 18 returning starters)	-0.5		5.6		6.1			65		4-8		-3.4
76 (84)	UAB (Callaway on the hot seat this year?)	0.0		5.8		5.8			96		4-8		-3.4
77 (79) (top defense, if only they had an offense)	Kent State (1st year coach Darrell Hazell - of Ohio State - putting in spread offense)	0.5		4.9		4.4			106		5-7		-3.5
78 (80) (need more talent for SEC play)	Vanderbilt (new head coach James Franklin)	-1.2		4.6		5.8			47		2-10		-3.7
79 (72)	Army (fortunes improving under Rich Ellerson)	-0.9		4.9		5.8			98		7-6		-3.7
80 (81)	Washington St.	-1.8		4.9		6.7			9		2-10		-3.8
81 (82)	Wake Forest	-1.0		4.8		5.8			39		3-9		-3.8
82 (83)	Toledo	0.2		5.5		5.3			91		8-5		-3.8
83 (73)	Minnesota (new coach Kill will raise the bar)	-1.3		5.3		6.6			45		3-9		-3.9
84 (87)	Duke	-1.2		5.2		6.4			37		3-9		-3.9
85 (97)	Idaho	-0.4		5.5		5.9			88		6-7		-4.0
86 (88)	Indiana	-1.2		5.4		6.6			87		5-7		-4.0
87 (74)	Miami (Ohio)	-0.2		5.2		5.4			108		10-4		-4.1
88 (89)	Ohio	0.2		5.5		5.3			114		8-5		-4.1
89 (98)	Louisiana Tech	-0.7		5.3		6.0			78		5-7		-4.1
90 (77)	Troy	0.1		5.9		5.8			111		8-5		-4.1
91 (91)	Rutgers (mediocre to average)	-1.2		4.6		5.8			84		4-8		-4.2
92 (92)	Wyoming	-0.8		5.0		5.8			70		3-9		-4.2
93 (93)	UTEP	-0.1		5.6		5.7			117		6-7		-4.2
94 (94)	Florida Int. FIU	0.1		5.7		5.6			103		7-6		-4.3
95 (95)	Marshall	-0.3		4.9		5.2			93		5-7		-4.3
96 (96)	Tulane	-1.0		5.0		6.0			97		4-8		-4.3
97 (90)	West. Michigan	0.0		5.7		5.7			107		6-6		-4.4
98 (100)	East Carolina	-0.8		5.7		6.5			66		6-7		-4.5
99 (75)	Kansas	-1.9		4.3		6.2			63		3-9		-4.7
100 (99)	Colorado State	-1.4		5.1		6.5			72		3-9		-4.8
101 (101)	Mid. Tennessee	0.2		5.3		5.1			132		6-7		-4.8
102 (102)	Utah State	-1.2		4.9		6.1			82		4-8		-4.9
103 (103)	Centr. Michigan	-0.1		5.4		5.5			101		3-9		-5.0
104 (104)	Arkansas State	-0.2		5.7		5.9			105		4-8		-5.2
105 (105)	Rice	-1.2		5.2		6.4			94		4-8		-5.3
106 (106)	San Jose State	-1.2		5.2		6.4			73		1-12		-5.6
107 (107)	Louis.-Monroe	-0.9		4.8		5.7			110		5-7		-5.7
108 (108)	North Texas	-0.3		5.6		5.9			116		3-9		-5.7
109 (109)	Florida Atlantic	-0.7		4.9		5.6			113		4-8		-5.9
110 (110)	UNLV	-2.3		4.4		6.7			55		2-11		-6.0
111 (111)	Ball State	-1.0		4.9		5.9			122		4-8		-6.0
112 (112)	Buffalo	-0.7		4.2		4.9			118		2-10		-6.0
113 (113)	Louis.-Lafayette	-0.9		5.0		5.9			109		3-9		-6.1
114 (114)	Memphis	-1.8		4.8		6.6			85		1-11		-6.5
115 (115)	West. Kentucky	-1.2		4.8		6.0			112		2-10		-6.6
116 (116)	New Mexico St.	-2.5		4.3		6.8			92		2-10		-6.6
117 (117)	New Mexico	-2.4		4.0		6.4			83		1-11		-6.6
118 (118)	Bowling Green	-1.8		4.3		6.1			100		2-10		-6.9
119 (119)	East. Michigan	-2.3		5.0		7.3			99		2-10		-7.4
120 (120)	Akron	-2.0		4.3		6.3			120		1-11		-7.5